The financial crisis – Consequences for Austria and CEE
Pessimism in Austria, optimism in Central Europe, no clear tendency in Russia
Roland Berger asked 250 executives from Austria and CEE, how they expect the financial crisis to pan out. Looking to the future, 73 percent of Austria's business leaders expect the economic situation in Europe to get worse. But the climate in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) offers a more mixed picture: while 54 percent of managers see further downturn ahead, 39 percent believe the outlook is not yet clear. Looking at their own industry, the respondents generally foresee zero growth, if not slight shrinkage, in Western Europe but only slower growth in Central Europe. The expectations for Russia range from reduced growth to sales drops of ten percent or more.
After the US, the crisis seems to be hitting Western Europe the hardest. A majority of Austrian managers (60%) rate the immediate damage in the West as relatively minor but expect (72%) a significant downturn in 2009. This picture contrasts with the view in the CEE economies. While respondents there (55%) tend to have a more negative view of the current situation in the West, they are less gloomy about future prospects. The Eastern Europeans are far more optimistic about the duration of the crisis. As many as 30 percent of these managers believe the financial crisis will no longer affect Western Europe in 2010.
For the present, the impact of the crisis on Central European economies has been slight. However, the managers surveyed by this study see things getting far worse in 2009. But the crisis will not be felt as sharply in the Central European countries as in the West. Looking at the prospects for their own region, the respondents generally expect reduced growth (33%) or a small downturn in sales (24%). For Russia the survey did not come up with any clear picture: The mood breaks down three ways. A third believe the trough has already been reached; a third think the outlook remains uncertain; and the other third expect worse things to come.
Roland Berger asked 250 executives from Austria and CEE, how they expect the financial crisis to pan out. Looking to the future, 73 percent of Austria's business leaders expect the economic situation in Europe to get worse. But the climate in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) offers a more mixed picture: while 54 percent of managers see further downturn ahead, 39 percent believe the outlook is not yet clear. Looking at their own industry, the respondents generally foresee zero growth, if not slight shrinkage, in Western Europe but only slower growth in Central Europe. The expectations for Russia range from reduced growth to sales drops of ten percent or more.
After the US, the crisis seems to be hitting Western Europe the hardest. A majority of Austrian managers (60%) rate the immediate damage in the West as relatively minor but expect (72%) a significant downturn in 2009. This picture contrasts with the view in the CEE economies. While respondents there (55%) tend to have a more negative view of the current situation in the West, they are less gloomy about future prospects. The Eastern Europeans are far more optimistic about the duration of the crisis. As many as 30 percent of these managers believe the financial crisis will no longer affect Western Europe in 2010.
For the present, the impact of the crisis on Central European economies has been slight. However, the managers surveyed by this study see things getting far worse in 2009. But the crisis will not be felt as sharply in the Central European countries as in the West. Looking at the prospects for their own region, the respondents generally expect reduced growth (33%) or a small downturn in sales (24%). For Russia the survey did not come up with any clear picture: The mood breaks down three ways. A third believe the trough has already been reached; a third think the outlook remains uncertain; and the other third expect worse things to come.
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